[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 24 10:14:41 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day today.
Solarr wind speed ranged from 440 to 500 km/s over the last
24 hours Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between +/-5nT for most parts of the UT day today.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 32322322
Darwin 7 22221322
Townsville 7 213221--
Learmonth 9 32222322
Canberra 7 22311321
Hobart 8 22312322
Casey(Ant) 14 4--32332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1112 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 4 Quiet
25 Nov 4 Quiet
26 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet levels
today with isolated unsettled periods. Quiet conditions are
expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours with some periods of minor to mild depressions
on high and some mid latitude locations. Similar conditions
may be expected for the next three days as no significant
variation to the ionospheric conditions is expected during
this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
25 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
26 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with some periods of
minor MUF depressions were observed in the Aus/NZ region
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF conditions may
be expected for the next 3 days for this region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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