[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 31 09:45:32 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24
hours. Solar wind speed stayed around 380 km/s by 0700UT
and then showed a gradual rise to 500 km/s by the time of
this report (around 2300UT). The Bz component of IMF varied
mostly between (+/-10 nT) during the day. Recurrent pattern
suggests that the solar wind stream may continue to remain
strengthened on 31 May. Solar activity is expected to remain
mostly at very low levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 14 22422343
Darwin 13 22422243
Townsville 18 33433343
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 9 12421232
Hobart 15 12522342
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara NA
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 33 4355 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 29 May and
is current for interval 30-31 May. Geomagnetic conditions
remained mostly at unsettled to active levels in the Australian
region today. Unsettled to active periods with some possibility
of isolated minor storm period may be expected on 31 May due
to the continued effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole. Conditions are then expected to decline to
mostly unsettled on 01 June and mostly quiet on 02 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
01 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: As anticipated normal to poor HF conditions were
observed on 30 May due to a rise in the geomagnetic activity
levels. Interferences due to the presence of mild to strong
sporadic E-layers were also observed at times during the day.
HF conditions may show mild to moderate degradations on
31 May due to possible continued enhancement in geomagnetic
activity during this period. HF conditions may gradually
return to normal over the following two days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 7 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
01 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
02 Jun 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on
30 May and is current for interval 30-31 May. Mild to
significant MUF depressions were observed in the Australian
region due to a rise in the geomagnetic activity levels and
very low EUV radiation emitted from the sun, resulting from
a low number of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected in this region on 31 May.
Conditions are expected to gradually improve over the
following two days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 56200 K Bz: -11 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list