[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 25 09:53:31 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed decreased from 360 to 300 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-3 nT for
most parts of the UT day today. The GOES 14 x-ray instrument
showed a long duration B1 class x-ray flare peaking at 1446UT/24
in association with a partial halo earthward directed CME. The
CME activities of 23 and 24 May are expected to strengthen the
solar wind stream on 26 and 27 May.Solar activity is expected
to remain mostly at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 1 01100001
Townsville 9 23222223
Learmonth 1 11010101
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Casey(Ant) 2 11110110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 3 Quiet
26 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
27 May 16 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region.
Expect Quiet conditions to prevail on 25 and parts of 26
May.Geomagnetic activity is expected to rise upto minor storm
levels late on 26 May and on 27 May due to expected arrival
of two CMEs from 26 to 27 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 24 May.Similar
conditions may be expected for 25 and parts of 26 May. Minor
to moderate degradations may be observed on 27 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
26 May 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 May 0 about 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian
region due to the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting
from a low number of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Degraded
conitions may be expected on 26 and 27 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 37100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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