[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 8 09:09:36 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 76/14 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. AR1069
produced a C2/SF flare at 0742UT/07 and was most likely associated
with the mass ejection noted in the Northwest qradrant on SOHO
C3 imagery at 0918UT/07. This activity is not expected to be
geo-effective. AR1069 retains the potential to produce C class
x-ray flares with a slight chance of a M-class flare, however,
as the region rotates off the visible solar disc in the next
two days it is less likely to be geo-effective. None of the other
numbered regions appear to have the potential for significant
flares. Solar wind speed decreased from 560 km/s to 460 km/s
during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain in this range
or slightly lower. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component
varied between +/- 4nT and was mostly southward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 8 23223221
Darwin 8 23123221
Townsville 7 22223221
Learmonth 8 23123221
Canberra 6 22123111
Hobart 8 23223122
Casey(Ant) 12 34323222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 62 (Active)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 1332 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 6 Quiet
09 May 6 Quiet
10 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours with Active levels noted at higher latitudes. Active
conditions most likely resultng from an extended period of a
weak southward Bz component in the IMF and a slightly elevated
solar wind stream. Over the next three days expect Quiet conditions
with occasional Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 24 near predicted monthly values
09 May 24 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 24 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Frequencies at most Australian latitudes were near monthly
medians with slight depressions noted at local night time hours,
probably due to remnant geomagnetic activity. Expect near median
conditions for the next 3 days. Noted spread F at Hobart station
during local night time hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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