[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 6 09:51:37 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 1719UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low to Moderate over the last 24
hours with most activity including an M1 class flare from region
AR1069. There are now six active regions on the disc with the
appearance of a new AR1070 but AR1069 is the largest and most
magnetically complex. Solar wind speed steadily decreased slightly
to 540km/s as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.
IMF Bz oscillated north-south between +/-4nT and no significant
southward periods. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate
over the next 3 days with more B and C-class flares from region
1069 and the possibility of M flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22212231
Darwin 4 22101221
Townsville 7 22212231
Learmonth 6 22112222
Canberra 3 12101120
Hobart 5 22112221
Casey(Ant) 13 34321242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 4132 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 May 7 Quiet
08 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled activity observed over the last 24
hours at mid-latitudes as solar wind speed declines The coronal
hole is rotating out of geoeffective position and solar wind
speed is decreasing so activity will decrease to generally Quiet.
The STEREO-B spacecraft detected a corotating structure in the
solar wind, possibly reaching Earth 10-11th May, probably coincident
with a large coronal hole about to rotate onto the disc.to generally
Quiet by tomorrow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal
08 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 24 near predicted monthly values
07 May 24 near predicted monthly values
08 May 24 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Frequencies at most Australian latitudes near monthly
medians but northern and equatorial regions depressed at night,
probably due to remnant geomagnetic activity from earlier in
the week. Expecting to return to median conditions for the next
3 days. Small possibility of an SWF from AR1069 which has already
produced an M1 flare and ha spotential for more M flares.day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 632 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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