[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar:  84/26

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Region 1057 (N17E57) has increased in size and complexity 
while region 1056 (N17W50) is now spotless. Both LASCO and STEREO 
A imagery show a CME erupting around 0742 UT. It is uncertain 
whether this event is related to region 1057. Solar wind parameters 
are likely to become disturbed today due to the effects of a 
coronal hole wind stream. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11113211
      Darwin               3   11102211
      Townsville           5   11113211
      Learmonth            4   10013211
      Canberra             1   00002200
      Hobart               5   11113211
      Casey(Ant)           6   13212211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar     6    Quiet to unsettled
26 Mar     5    Quiet 
27 Mar     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods likely at high latitudes today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
26 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Mar    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 60%
      09-16 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 60%
      00-06 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 40%
      11-18 UT at Darwin and 01-05, 10-17 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
      Night spread F observed at some stations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
26 Mar    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
27 Mar    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 286 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    14800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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