[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 22 10:19:35 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: No significant solar activity observed today. Solar
wind parameters have declined to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 12111101
Darwin 2 12111001
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 2 22011000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 5 23-20101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1331 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 4 Quiet
23 Mar 6 Quiet
24 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet with isolated Unsettled
periods during the first half of the UT day at high latitudes
only. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days. Chance
of brief Unsettled periods day two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20-40%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
23 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
24 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the
region over the past 24 hours, especially Equatorial/N Aus around
local mid-day. Expect generally enhanced conditions next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 74700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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