[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 16 10:42:21 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 87/30
COMMENT: NOAA active region 1054 produced only a few B-class
flares and Type III radio sweeps over the past 24 hours. It has
declined slightly in magnetic complexity. Solar wind speed remains
stable but recurrence and recent activity suggests possible increased
solar wind parameters over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21111221
Darwin 3 21001121
Townsville 4 21111221
Learmonth 3 21011220
Canberra - --------
Hobart 2 11011111
Casey(Ant) 6 23211220
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 6 2111 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 6 Quiet. Chance unsettled periods.
17 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
18 Mar 6 Quiet. Chance unsettled periods.
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated
unsettled intervals at high latitudes only. Expect mostly quiet
conditions with the chance of unsettled periods next three days.
Isolated active intervals possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
17 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
18 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal to moderately enhanced HF conditions are
expected for the next 3 days due to an increase in EUV levels.
Noted spread F over Hobart during the local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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