[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 27 09:35:05 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
ACE showed the solar wind speed elevate from 350 to 450 km/s
at approximately 26/0230UT due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
Expect the solar wind to remain elevated at this level or slightly
above for the next three days. The interplanetary magnetic field
Bz component went negative to -10 nT at the onset of the coronal
hole becoming geo-effective then returned to +/-5nT. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 23331222
Darwin 9 23331222
Townsville 16 33343333
Learmonth 9 23331222
Canberra 5 12230210
Hobart 7 12331221
Casey(Ant) 10 23332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 12 Unsettled
28 Jun 12 Unsettled
29 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated cases of
of Active levels at high latitudes were observed over the last
24 hours. Expect this trend to continue over the next three days.
There is a possibilty of Minor Storm levels due to a strong northern
extension of the coronal hole that is borderline geo-effective
extending down to near 25 degrees north from the pole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions particularly during the local day
time hours. Ionospehric support expected to be below monthly
averages across all regions due to reduced EUV ionisation/weak
sunspot activity for the next 3 days, with MUF depressions of
10%-20% for low to mid latitudes. Noted isolated cases of
sporadic E in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 60200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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