[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 25 09:00:32 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 76/14 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed ranged between 300km/s-360km/s over the UT day.
Expect the solar wind to increase to over 500 km/s today due
to a recurrent coronal hole reaching its geo-effective location.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 11112321
Darwin 5 01112321
Townsville 13 23333332
Learmonth 5 11112321
Canberra 2 00002210
Hobart 4 00003310
Casey(Ant) 5 02112321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1111 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 24 active
26 Jun 18 active
27 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 23 June and
is current for interval 25-26 June. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Expect geomagnetic
activity to increase today, 25 June, due to an increase in the
solar wind speed. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettle
to Active today and tomorrow with isolated cases of Minor Storm
levels at high latitudes. On 27 June conditions are expected
to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels. .
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
26 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 5 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 0 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions during UT day. Ionospehric support
expected to be below monthly averages across all regions due
to reduced EUV ionisation/weak sunspot activity for the next
3 days, with MUF depressions of 10%-30% for low to mid latitudes.
Noted isolated cases of sporadic E in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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