[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 10 09:32:59 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region
1087 (N18E72) produced 3 C-class flares, the largest being a
C3 at 1951UT. Solar wind speed varied between 320 and 360 km/s
and the Bz component of the IMF stayed mostly negative upto -5nT
through the day. Solar region 1087 may produce C-class flares
and the solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low
levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 4 22121111
Townsville 13 33332323
Learmonth 4 22121101
Canberra 2 11120000
Hobart 2 11120100
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 3 Quiet
11 Jul 3 Quiet
12 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
11 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
12 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly fair to normal HF conditions were observed
on most locations during the UT day today. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next three days as the
ionospheric ionisation continues to remain weak due to
continued very low solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day to
near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day to
nearr predicted monthly values,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day to
near predicted monthly values,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 10 Depressed 10 to 20 %/near predicted monthly.
11 Jul 10 Depressed 10 to 20 %/near predicted monthly.
12 Jul 10 Depressed 10 to 20 %/near predicted monthly.
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions of up to around 20% observed
during both local day and night for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions with notable sporadic E at times. Ionosphere continues
to remain weakly ionised due to very low solar activity.
Similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 28800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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