[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 11 10:34:16 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: AR1040 has numerous spots and a stable magnetic
configuration.
It issued numerous B-class X-ray flares today. Expect more B-class
flares from this region with slight chance for a C-class x-ray
flare over the next three days. The solar wind was low to moderate
at 280-320 km/s and is expected to remain in this range or slightly
above for the next two days. IMF Bz was mildly negative, less
than -5nT, from 07-14UT, conducive to merging with the geomagntic
field. The GOES backgound x-ray flux is elevated and is expected
to remain so until the active regions rotate around the west
limb. A recurrent coronal hole will reach its geo-effective position
on 12 Jan and the solar wind is expect to reach close to 400
km/s by the end of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 21221212
Darwin 4 11211212
Townsville 5 21211212
Learmonth 6 21221311
Canberra 1 00110111
Hobart 4 11221211
Casey(Ant) 9 33321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 4 Quiet
12 Jan 6 Quiet
13 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was Quiet at mid-latitudes and Unsettled
at polar latitudes early in the day due to IMF Bz south (see
Solar section). The field should remain generally Quiet in the
absence of extended IMF Bz southward periods. Expect Unsettled
to Active levels of geomagnetic activity at higher latitudes
due to an increase in the solar wind speed 12 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values,
due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions, particularly
AR1040, on the Sun. Sporadic E was noted through out the Australian
region. Near-equatorial sites had high MUF variability, probably
due to thermospheric winds and ionospheric electric fields, as
the geomagnetic activity was Quiet. Expect the solar active regions
to sustain ionisation and MUFs for several days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 25800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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