[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 2 10:16:07 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 80/20
COMMENT: Some minor B-class flares were observed today. Some
minor variability observed in solar wind velocity over the UT
day with no significant space weather effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 2 10100112
Townsville 4 21111122
Learmonth 3 21101112
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000001
Casey(Ant) 7 222-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 2 Quiet
03 Jan 2 Quiet
04 Jan 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed throughout
the region today. Similar conditions may be expected for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
03 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Periods of sporadic-E conditions observed at Darwin,
Brisbane and Hobart. Generally depressed conditions observed
Equatorial/N Aus regions, mainly local night. Recurrence and
continuing low solar activity suggests possible occasional MUF
depressions of 10 to 20%, mainly Equatorial/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 274 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 27400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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