[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 10 10:39:30 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the the last 24 hours. Region
1045 (N23W27) continues to flare and has a complex beta-gamma/delta
magnetic class. It has produced several C and B class x-ray flares
over the last 24 hours. It is expected to continue to produce
M and C class x-ray flares with a slight possibility of an X
class flare as long as the spot group has a beta-gamma/delta
magnetic complexity. CMEs that occurred on the 7 and 8 february
are expected to arrive today (9 February) and tomorrow (10 february)
and are expected to be geo-effective over the next two days.
The CME observed on 6 February appeared to have arrived late
in the UT day on 8 February resulting in a 50km/s jump in the
solar wind for a couple hours. The solar wind ranged from 370km/s
to 300 km/s over the UT day and is expected to remain in this
range or slightly above for the next three days. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT over
the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11121111
Darwin 3 11121111
Townsville 4 11221121
Learmonth 3 10121112
Canberra 0 00010000
Hobart 3 11121111
Casey(Ant) 7 ---31122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2210 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 9 February and
is current for interval 9-11 February. Geomagnetic activity was
mostly Quiet over the UT day with an isolated Unsettled to Actived
periods early in the UT day at high latitudes. Expect mostly
Unsettled conditions for the next three days with a chance of
isolated Active to Minor storm periods due to to possible impending
CME activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 9 February
and is current for interval 9-11 February (SWFs) . Ionospheric
conditions in the Australian region were mostly normal over the
UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly values. Due to moderate
solar activity expect possible fades in the sunlit hemisphere
throughout the next three days. Otherwise expect mostly normal
HF conditions with MUFs near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 26200 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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