[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 8 10:14:13 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 06/2137UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M6/1N 0224UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 94/40 94/40
COMMENT: Solar Activity was High over the UT day. Region 1045
(N23W04) continued to flare producing an M6.4 magnitude flare
at 0224UT and a number of C-class flares throughout the day.
SOHO/LASCO imagery shows a number of CMEs over the period, the
strongest associated with the M1.3 flare of late 06 Feb (06/2137)
and a full halo CME with the M6.4 flare of 07 Feb (07/0224).
Region 1045 remains an FKC spot group with a complex magnetic
beta-gamma configuration with the potential to produce further
M-class events over the next 24 hours. The solar wind increased
late in the UT day to above 400km/s under the influence of a
coronal hole wind stream. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain elevated next 3-5 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 32111122
Darwin 6 31101123
Townsville 6 32211122
Learmonth 5 32001122
Canberra 2 22000011
Hobart 5 32111112
Casey(Ant) 9 3--31132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0000 2311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 10 Mostly Unsettled with isolated Active periods
09 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
10 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the UT day
with an isolated Unsettled period early in the UT day. Expect
mostly Unsettled conditions 08 Feb with a chance of isolated
Active periods due to onset of a coronal hole high speed wind
stream. Minor Storming possible at high latitudes 08-09 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 7 February
and is current for interval 7-8 February (SWFs) . Ionospheric
conditions in the Australian region were mostly normal over the
UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly values. An M6 solar flare
at 0224UT produced a short wave fade centred over eastern Australia
affecting HF circuits over the Australian region for 15-20 minutes.
The solar active region which produced the M-class flare continues
to flare and may cause further fades in the sunlit hemisphere
throughout the day. Otherwise expect mostly normal HF conditions
08 Feb with MUFs near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 79600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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