[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 1 10:30:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: The solar wind speed peaked at around 475 km/s and at
the time of issue is around 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component ranged between +/-7 nT. The disturbance in
the solar wind parameters is considered to be the result of a
coronal hole high speed wind stream as shown in the GONG coronal
hole plots. Region 1043 (N25 E24) grew rapidly and may produce
C-class flares. Region 1041 (S27 W70) is now spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 31112122
Darwin 6 22111123
Townsville 7 21211133
Learmonth 6 32112112
Canberra 3 21102111
Hobart 4 21112211
Casey(Ant) 11 4--32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 5 Quiet
02 Feb 5 Quiet
03 Feb 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E
observed 18-21 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
03-05 and 10-13 UT. Sporadic E observed 04, 06-09,
11-21 UT and night spread F.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20% 03,
06-08 UT at Darwin and 02-03, 06-08, 12-16 and 22 UT at
Townsville. Night spread F observed at both stations.
Sporadic E observed at Townsville mostly00-08 and
12-22 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
00-03, 06-09 at Brisbane, Canberra, Norfolk Is. and
Sydney and to 15% 01, 04-09, 21 UT at Hobart. Night
spread F observed at Brisbane and Norfolk Is. Sporadic
E observed at times 00-12 and 21 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 3 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 3 Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs to 25% likely at times. Sporadic
E may affect F region communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 53100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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