[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 31 10:16:35 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Solar wind speed
ranged from 340 to 380 km/s over the last 24 hours. The
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component stayed close
to the normal value until 1000UT and then showed fluctuations
between +/-6 nT during most of the remaining part of the UT day.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 11222321
Darwin 7 21222322
Townsville 7 ---31221
Learmonth 6 11121322
Canberra 5 01122320
Hobart 4 01112320
Casey(Ant) 8 23322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1010 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 3 Quiet
01 Jan 3 Quiet
02 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet to Unsettled
levels today. Mostly Quiet conditions may be expected for
the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were observed during the
last 24 hours on some mid latitude locations. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next three days as the
solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels,
and hence low ionising radiation is expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
01 Jan 14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
02 Jan 14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Nearly normal HF conditions were observed today with
isolated periods of minor MUF depressions on mid latitudes. Due
to continued Very Low levels of solar activity less ionising
radiation is being received. Nearly similar HF conditions may
be expected for the next 3 days. Periods of partial to complete
blanketing by Sporadic E-layer were observed at some low and
mid latitude locations today. Similar effect of Sporadic E-layer
may continue to be observed over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 65100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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