[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 18 10:30:30 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: There were a number of sub-flares, of which two originated
from region 1135 (N19E02). There is the slight chance of a C-class
event from this region. Solar wind parameters were mostly undisturbed;
speed declining from 510 to 400 km/s. Solar wind speed may increase
later day one in response to the effects of a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22111221
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 6 22211112
Learmonth 5 21112221
Canberra 4 22101121
Hobart 4 22111121
Casey(Ant) 13 44432232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2121 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 7 Quiet. Possibility of unsettled periods.
19 Dec 5 Quiet
20 Dec 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
19 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
20 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
02-04, 17-19 and 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
02-05, 17-18 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
00-04, 09 UT at Townsville and 09, 15-16 and 23 UT
at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
00-04, 17-19 UT at Brisbane and Norfolk Is. and to 25%
10-14 UT at Norfolk Is. Sporadic E observed at times
00-15 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect occasional depressions to about 25%. Seasonal
sporadic E may degrade communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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