[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 1 10:46:28 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 88/32 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Region 1130 was the source of numerous B-class events, the largest
being a B8.1 at 2045UT. A notable CME was observed in Stereo
Ahead COR2 imagery from 1939UT. Solar wind speed continued to
fall, from a maximum of 400km/s at 12UT to be 340km/s at the time of
this report. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-4nT. Solar activity is expected to stay
at Very Low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12111221
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 5 12211221
Learmonth 4 11111221
Canberra 1 01110110
Hobart 3 12121110
Casey(Ant) 9 33-22222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0011 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 4 Quiet
02 Dec 4 Quiet
03 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed over the
last 24 hours for all regions during local day except for the
Antarctic region with depressed conditions over the entire UT
day. Depressed MUF's of 10%-20% for Northern AUS/Equatorial and
Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night. Notable sporadic
E for Northern AUS regions between 06-13UT. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days with possible MUF depressions
of 10%-20% for the Australian/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 44300 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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