[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug:  84/26

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Aug             12 Aug             13 Aug
Activity     Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              85/27

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low over the 
next three days. Active regions 1093, 1096 and 1097 are likely 
to produce B-class x-ray flares and there is a moderate chance 
for an isolated C-class flare. The solar wind speed ranged from 
400-485 km/s during the UT day and is expected to remain in 
this range or slightly below over the next three days. The IMF 
was between +/-5nT over the last 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211112
      Darwin               5   22211112
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            5   22221112
      Canberra             2   11101002
      Hobart               2   11111002
      Casey(Ant)           8   23321122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3421 2223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Aug     6    Quiet 
12 Aug     4    Quiet 
13 Aug     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Aug    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Aug    27    near predicted monthly values 
12 Aug    27    near predicted monthly values 
13 Aug    27    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Variable conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Generally weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region local night 
hours. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions next three 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    97700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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