[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 8 09:51:13 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1827UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate. Active region 1093 produced
a long-duration flare which reached M1 level at 1824UT. This
was followed by a Type II radio noise burst with estimated sweep
velocity 675km/s, and two distinct 10cm radio noise bursts at 1825
and 1919UT. STEREO imagery shows a W-directed partial halo CME
which has potential to become geoeffective within the forecast
period. Solar wind speed declined from 450 to 400km/s over the
UT day. The IMF Bz component remained mostly neutral. There is
a chance of further C-class flare activity from AR 1093.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 12211111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 2 11111001
Canberra 1 01110001
Hobart 2 11120000
Casey(Ant) 7 33311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2321 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 5 Quiet
09 Aug 5 Quiet
10 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continues to decline, with the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz component mostly neutral. Regional
geomagnetic conditions were quiet with isolated unsettled periods
at high latitudes. Conditions should remain mostly quiet days one
and two. Possibility of a mild solar wind shock day three resulting
in unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values local day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Generally weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region local night
hours. A period of disturbance observed S Aus/S Ocean areas 17-20UT.
Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions next three days with
variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Disturbances
possible S Aus/Antarctic regions day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 92000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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