[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 3 09:44:17 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 84/26
COMMENT: Two B-class flares observed over the UT day Aug 02.
Learmonth and Culgoora radiospectrographs observed solar noise
continuum from 04UT until near the end of patrol around 07UT.
Solar wind speed continued to decline and is at 440km/s at the
time of report issue. Bz fluctuated +/-2nT over the UT day. A
minor solar wind shock is possible at Earth on day one, with
a moderate shock likely on day two or three. Both predicted shocks
are consequent to the complex eruptions observed Aug 01.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Darwin 5 21122212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22223201
Canberra 5 12222201
Hobart 5 12222201
Casey(Ant) 10 33322312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Aug 20 active
05 Aug 20 active
COMMENT: The recent solar wind coronal hole wind stream continues
to decline. The regional geomagnetic field was quiet at low to
mid latitudes with isolated unsettled periods at high latitudes.
Analysis of the complex solar eruptions of Aug 01 suggests two
possible geoeffective shock events. The first could arrive on
day one of the forecast period and is likely to be minor. The
second may arrive on day two or three and could result in active
geomagnetic conditions, with minor storm periods possible at
high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF disturbances possible mid to high latitudes days
2 and 3 in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20-30%.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Aug 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed with moderate
depressions Equatorial/ N Aus regions and periods of disturbance
Antarctic region. Expect similar conditions day one. Extended
periods of disturbance possible S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions days
two and three due to elevated geomagnetic activty resulting from
recent solar events.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 494 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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