[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 28 09:37:14 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed was ~360km/s over the UT day. Bz ranged between
+/-5nT. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22110111
Darwin 3 22100111
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 4 22210111
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 11100011
Casey(Ant) 4 22211101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0110 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 7 Quiet
29 Apr 6 Quiet
30 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days with possible
Unsettled periods for 28Apr due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for all regions over the
last 24 hours with depressed conditions during local night for
Equatorial/Northern AUS regions. Continued sporadic-E conditions
observed for mid latitude stations during local day and periods
of weak ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 29800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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