[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 09

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Sep             22 Sep             23 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               75/13              77/16

COMMENT: The visible disk is spotless. The solar wind speed declined 
to about 300 km/s around 08 UT and has since increased to about 
380 km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet with unsettled
periods at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 20 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12112122
      Darwin               4   11112112
      Townsville           7   22212223
      Learmonth            5   12112122
      Canberra             2   01001022
      Hobart               4   11112122
      Casey(Ant)           7   23222122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          18   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1010 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Sep     7    Quiet 
22 Sep     6    Quiet 
23 Sep     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated unsettled periods likely at high latitudes 
on days one and two. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
22 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
23 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Sep    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 40%
      observed at Niue 00-04, 11-17 and 20-21 UT.
      Depressions to 25% at Vanimo 06-10 UT and to 50%
      13-20 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      observed at Darwin 04-07 UT. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 60% at
      times observed at Canberra, Christchurch, Hobart and
      Sydney mostly 12-20 UT. Depressions to 20% observed at
      Brisbane 00-06 UT and Norfolk Is. 07-14 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      at Casey and Scott Base mostly 08-22 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible, particularly at lower latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 363 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    41100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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