[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 28 10:22:34 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 78/17
COMMENT: Low solar activity was observed over the last 24 hours.
The GOES solar x-ray flux instrument detected several B-class
and C-class flares from active region (AR) 1029 through out the
UT day, 27 October. Holloman and Learmonth Solar Observatories
also observed occasional associated H-alpha subflares. At 1454UT
Holloman reported AR 1029 had 24 spots and an area of 250 mils
with a beta-gamma magnteic configuration. The region has grown
by approximately 60 mils over the last 24 hours. Expect this
flaring trend to continue for the next three days. Solar wind
speed varied between 395 and 360 km/s and is presently 380 km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained
between +/-2nT. The solar wind is expected to remain near or
below 400 km/s for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12112111
Darwin 3 11011112
Townsville 6 22222121
Learmonth 3 21012111
Canberra 1 01001010
Hobart 4 12212111
Casey(Ant) 8 23322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0011 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 4 Quiet
29 Oct 4 Quiet
30 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours for low to mid latitudes and Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for high latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected at all
latitudes for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 1 near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 1 near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Blanketing sporadic E was noted between 01 and 05 UT
27 October at Niue. Expect near predicted monthly HF conditions
for the Australian and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 45700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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