[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 26 10:52:19 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours with
region 1029 the source of a C1.5 flare at 0226UT as well as minor
B-class events. Solar wind speed increased steadily from 420km/s
at 0000UT to reach a maximum of 490km/s before falling to be
400km/s at the time of this report. The decrease in solar wind
parameters is due to the current coronal hole high speed wind
stream moving out of geoeffective position. Bz, the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field decreased in magnitude
to fluctuate between +/-2nT over the UT day. Low solar activity
is expected over the next few days with further C-class events
and possible M class from region 1029.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 21222111
Canberra 4 22222100
Hobart 8 22233211
Casey(Ant) 10 3-422221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 0011 1242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 6 Quiet
27 Oct 5 Quiet
28 Oct 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes and Unsettled for high
latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with depressed periods during local day and night for
Equatorial regions. Normal conditions for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed periods for Antarctic Regions. Continued
sporadic E effects for low latitudes between 07UT-19UT. Depressed
MUFs 10%~20% expected for low latitudes over the next 3 days
and further disturbed conditions for high latitudes. Mostly normal
conditions expected for mid latitudes with continued sporadic
E for low latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 30800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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