[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 19 10:47:56 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Vsw observed by the ACE spacecraft was in the narrow
300-320km/sec range but appeared turbulent towards the end of
the UT day. The solar wind is expected to increase to moderate
levels during the next 24-48 hours due to the leading edge of
thin coronal holes in both hemispheres, visible in SOHO spacecraft
EIT imagery, rotating into geoeffective position. The solar disc
remains spotless. The heated region located at S29 recently crossed
into the west limb shows plage in h-alpha and a simple magnetic
structure, but no spots. There is a chance of subflaring, although
very low solar activity is expected over the next three days.
The SIDC (RWC-Belgium) has noted this region produced eruptions/EIT
waves around Oct 16 16:00 and again around Oct 17 19:00 and that
LASCO images show hints of a halo CME the first event. This is
likely to be slow moving and weak but may impact the geomagnetic
field during the 19th.The emerging flux region at S12 on the
east limb may develop spots as it transits the solar disc. Returning
region 1027 shows a weak and simple magnetic complexity and is
unlikely to develop any spots this transit.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12112111
Darwin 2 11002101
Townsville 6 22212221
Learmonth 3 12003101
Canberra 1 01001100
Hobart 4 12112211
Casey(Ant) 6 23212111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 4 Quiet
20 Oct 4 Quiet
21 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours
at mid and low latitudes and Quiet-Unsettled at polar latitudes.
an extended IMF Bz southward observed on th eACE spacecraft 05-14UT
did not appear to significantly increase magnetic activity as
the magnitude was only -2nT. There is a possibility of a weak
CME (see Solar) clipping the geomagnetic field in the next 24h
and the solar wind speed may increase moderately as two this
coronal holes start to move into geoeffective position. Expect
Quiet-Unsettled levels at mid to low-latitudes and Quiet to Active
conditions at polar latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
20 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
21 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF frequencies are expected to remain near or slightly
below monthly predicted levels with night enhancements at mid
latitudes and night reductions at near-equatorial latitudes.
Mildly enhanced geomagnetic activity expected in the next 24-48
hours may raise ionisation and frequencies. Extensive sporadic
E was noted near local midnight at near-equatorial stations and
evening hours at northern Australian stations. was noted in the
Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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