[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 13 10:46:06 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The effect of the thin vertical coronal hole waned today
as solar wind speed Vsw declined from 420 to 350km/sec. IMF Bz
was southward 03-07UT causing geomagnetic merging but northward
from 07-17UT shutting off merging wih the geomagnetic field.
The solar disc continues to remain spotless although an as yet
un-numbered active region is emerging on the limb in the SOHO
spacecraft EIT imagery. Magnetograms indicate simple bipolar
magnetic configuration at this stage so flaring should not be
significant. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11201021
Darwin 2 11101011
Townsville 5 22212121
Learmonth 2 11101021
Canberra 0 00100010
Hobart 2 11201011
Casey(Ant) 7 3-311121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1131 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 5 Quiet
14 Oct 5 Quiet
15 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at mid-latitudes but
Unsettled to Active at polar latitudes ~00-08UT due to IMF Bz
fluctuations and southward orientation. An IMF sector boundary
crossing predicted around this 24hr period seemed to occur in
the solar wind/IMF parameters at 1130UT, but did not appear to
have a significant geomagnetic effect. Quiet conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days unless a prolonged IMF Bz southward
period occurs. STEREO-B shows another small coronal hole at least
5 days from geoeffectiveness.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
14 Oct -4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
15 Oct -7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: HF frequencies are expected to remain mostly at normal
to slightly reduced levels during daytime across Aus/NZ regions
for the next 3 days with possible nighttime enhancements. No
significant geomagnetic activity that would lift ionisation and
frequencies expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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