[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 30 10:17:44 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed decreased from 360 to 300 km/s
and the Bz component of IMF stayed mostly between +/-3 nT
during the UT day today. Solar acivity is expected to stay
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 2 01100112
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 1 11001101
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 1 01100101
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0011 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 3 Quiet
01 Dec 3 Quiet
02 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
today. Similar conditions may be exptected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions observed on low latitude
during the first few hours of the UT day today (29 November),
otherwise HF conditions were mostly normal during the day
with strong sporadic E layers observed at low and mid
latitudes. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at
normal levels for the next 3 days as no significant ionospheric
variations are expected during this period. However, periods
of minor to mild MUF depressions may be possible for the
next three days at low and some mid latitude locations due
to a weak ionosphere as the solar activity is continuing
to stay at very low levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov -15 near predicted monthly values
01 Dec -15 near predicted monthly values
02 Dec -15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 59300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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