[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 29 09:44:21 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The Solar disk is spotless. ACE shows the solar wind has increased
from 270 to 430 km/s, as well as an increase in temperature which
indicates a coronal hole has reach its geo-effective position.
The GONG coronal hole plot shows the coronal hole extending from
the northern pole to just under 20 degrees latitude north. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly
southward between the onset of the shock at approximatelt 0430
UT to 1100 UT reaching -6nT. Expect solar activity to be very
Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 6 13231101
Darwin 6 13231101
Townsville 11 14332222
Learmonth 10 15331100
Camden 5 03231101
Canberra 3 03220000
Hobart 4 03221000
Casey(Ant) 6 13231111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: There was mostly unsettled conditions with active periods
of geomagnetic activity between 0430 and 1130 UT due to a southward
Bz component of the IMF and an increase in the solar wind speed.
Expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions for the next
2 days due to an increase in the solar wind speed and a return
to quiet levels on 31 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 May 5 near predicted monthly values
31 May 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours for
all regions, with continued sporadic E for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions. Enhanced conditions for Antarctic and southern Australian
regions followed by possible mild depresions later in the UT
day 29 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 286 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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