[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 29 09:44:21 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 May             30 May             31 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The Solar disk is spotless. ACE shows the solar wind has increased 
from 270 to 430 km/s, as well as an increase in temperature which 
indicates a coronal hole has reach its geo-effective position. 
The GONG coronal hole plot shows the coronal hole extending from 
the northern pole to just under 20 degrees latitude north. The 
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly 
southward between the onset of the shock at approximatelt 0430 
UT to 1100 UT reaching -6nT. Expect solar activity to be very 
Low for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   13231101
      Darwin               6   13231101
      Townsville          11   14332222
      Learmonth           10   15331100
      Camden               5   03231101
      Canberra             3   03220000
      Hobart               4   03221000
      Casey(Ant)           6   13231111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 0212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 May     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: There was mostly unsettled conditions with active periods 
of geomagnetic activity between 0430 and 1130 UT due to a southward 
Bz component of the IMF and an increase in the solar wind speed. 
Expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions for the next 
2 days due to an increase in the solar wind speed and a return 
to quiet levels on 31 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 May     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 May     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
30 May     5    near predicted monthly values 
31 May     5    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours for 
all regions, with continued sporadic E for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions. Enhanced conditions for Antarctic and southern Australian 
regions followed by possible mild depresions later in the UT 
day 29 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 286 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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