[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 22 09:37:50 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours as the
visible solar disc remians spotless. Solar wind speed ranged
between 340km/s and 360km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT. Solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 2 21101001
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 2 21211000
Camden 1 11111000
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 10111001
Casey(Ant) 3 12221010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1100 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 5 Quiet
23 May 5 Quiet
24 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
23 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 5 near predicted monthly values
23 May 5 near predicted monthly values
24 May 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for all regions, apart from some depressed periods during
local day for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. Continued
enhanced conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions during local
night and disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. MUF depressions
of 10%-20% possible for low latitudes with otherwise normal conditions
for mid to high latitidues expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 11800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list