[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 15 09:55:54 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: AR1017 is at N18E27 and two spot groups span the centre
of the visible disc. This active region has a moderate chance
of subflaring. However it has a simple beta magnetic class and
is not expected to produce any significant flares at this time,
though the sunspot count has increased slightly indicating a
small increase in magnetic complexity. The SOHO spacecraft observed
a CME off the east limb two days ago. The solar wind speed at
Earth showed an increase from 320 to 400km/sec at 20UT, with
a preceding strong Bz northwards 10-14UT and southwards 14-20UT,
indicating good geomagnetic merging. This may be the edge of
the eastwards CME if the shock front was broader than usual.
The STEREO-B spacecraft shows the trailing solar wind speed to
be less than at Earth so the enhancement will likely only last
a day or two. Another active region can be seen emerging on the
east limb in the SOHO images.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 8 12233221
Darwin 11 1-333322
Townsville 9 12233232
Learmonth 11 12234331
Camden 5 02122221
Canberra 4 01122121
Hobart 4 01222121
Casey(Ant) 9 22233222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled at mid latitudes
with sporaidc Active periods at low latitudes. Auroral oval latitudes
are now showing Storm conditions due to the solar wind speed
jump at 20UT and preceding strong Bz south. Expect continuing
Quiet-Unsettled with isolated Active periods on the 15th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 10 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
16 May 10 0 to 5% above predicted monthly values
17 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly elevated MUFs expected due to an increase in
ionisation induced by an increase in EUV levels from plage associated
with AR1017 on the sun. Also alightly increased geomagnetic activity
for the next 1-2 days may increase MUFs slightly and also introduce
more variability. Equatorial latitudes showed strong nighttime
spread-F due to upwelling in the anomaly.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 23100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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