[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 11 09:59:31 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 73/9
COMMENT: The visible solar disc has a pair of active regions,
which are as yet un-numbered, and recently rotated onto the north
eastern quadrant. They have produced a couple of B class flares
and a type III radio burst since rotating into view and were
responsible for a CME on the 5th when behind the limb. They are
expected to produce more B and possibly C class flares, but no
indication at this stage of M/X flares. The solar wind speed
has lowered to ~410 km/s as the effect of the coronal hole has
passed. Some extended Bz southwards 10-14UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11112011
Darwin 2 11102011
Townsville 6 12222122
Learmonth 4 11113021
Camden 2 01112010
Canberra 1 00002010
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 5 22212111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1212 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 4 Quiet
12 May 4 Quiet
13 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: A gradual decline in the geomagnetic activity has been
observed over the last 24 hours due to the weakening of the coronal
hole effect. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly
at quiet levels for the next 3 days unless the solar active regions
just rotated onto the visible disc produce a geoeffective CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
13 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 10 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
12 May 8 0 to 5% above predicted monthly values
13 May 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal,
with possibly slightly enhanced MUFs on most locations across
Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. Extensive night spread-F
observed at equatorial latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 78300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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