[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged between 300 and 350 km/s 
over the last 24 hours. Active region 11016 was responsible for 
a type III sweep at 0618UT (1 May) and a B2 x-ray flare at 0858UT 
as it rotated around the west limb. This will not induce any 
significant geo-effective activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11121001
      Darwin               2   --121001
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            3   21121100
      Camden               1   01111001
      Canberra             0   00110000
      Hobart               1   10111000
      Casey(Ant)           4   12221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Darwin              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 2101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May     3    Quiet 
03 May     3    Quiet 
04 May     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagneitc activity is expected stay at quiet levels 
for the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 
most locations for the next 3 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 May     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May     4    near predicted monthly values 
03 May     4    near predicted monthly values 
04 May     4    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal across Aus/NZ 
regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    41700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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