[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged between about 400 and 460
km/s. Similar speeds are expected day one, declining on days two
and three, based on STEREO B data. The visible solar disc remains 
spotless. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet with mild
activity at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 29 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21121112
      Darwin               3   11110112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   21120101
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             2   11010002
      Hobart               2   11110002
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1000 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar     6    Quiet 
31 Mar     6    Quiet 
01 Apr     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated unsettled conditions possible on days one and 
two. Possible active periods on days one and two at high latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
31 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
01 Apr      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Mar    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
      07-15 and 20-21 UT observed at Niue. No data for
      Vanimo.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      around 00-05 and 08-12 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 20%. Night spread F observed at
      Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
31 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
01 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 

COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% possible at all latitudes. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    66100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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