[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from about 490 km/s to its 
current level of around 420 km/s. Two sub-flares, a B1.8 at 0143 
UT and a B3.5 at 0216 UT, occurred but were not associated with 
a visible spot group. The visible solar disc remains spotless. 
Solar wind speed should decrease today with a possibility of 
moderate elevation on days 2 and 3. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212121
      Darwin               4   12211112
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            5   22212120
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             3   12201111
      Hobart               5   12311111
      Casey(Ant)          10   33332122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   4423 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar     5    Quiet 
28 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
29 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at higher latitudes 
on days two and three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
28 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
29 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Mar    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      00-03 UT. No data for Vanimo.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
      30% at Townsville, 02-05 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      around 01-06 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
28 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
29 Mar     3    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 

COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% possible on all days. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    86400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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