[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind speed has ranged from about 370 km/s 
to about 510 km/s. Wind speed is expected to remain elevated 
on day one and probably day two. The solar disc is presently 
spotless. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22223312
      Darwin               8   12223312
      Townsville           9   22223322
      Learmonth            8   22123321
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             5   11123211
      Hobart               6   12223211
      Casey(Ant)           9   33322212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1010 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
26 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
27 Mar     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at higher latitudes 
on day one and two. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
27 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Mar     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values at Niue with some
      daytime sporadic E. No data for Vanimo.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Some night sporadic E
      observed at Brisbane and Norfolk Is.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar     3    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
26 Mar     3    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
27 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 

COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% possible on all days. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    40300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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