[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 22 10:27:07 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: As anticipated, solar activity remained at very
low levels and due to the effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole the solar wind
stream remained strengthened with solar wind speed staying
between 400 and 450 km/s for most part of the UT day today.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed
positive (upto around +10nT) for most part of the UT day
today. Bz stayed negative between 0800 and 1200UT and again
between 1800 and 2100UT. The effect of the coronal hole is
expected to weaken on 22 March. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 13333122
Darwin 9 13323122
Townsville 11 23333222
Learmonth 12 13334222
Camden 8 13233121
Canberra 6 12223111
Hobart 8 03233121
Casey(Ant) 11 24322123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2000 0212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 4 Mostly quiet, some possibility of isolated unsettled
periods.
23 Mar 3 Quiet
24 Mar 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to mostly
quiet levels on 22 March and then stay at quiet levels on 23
and 24 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values
23 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values
24 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 39500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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