[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 19 10:37:50 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined to ~320km/s, below quiescent
level, by the end of the UT day. The upcoming small coronal hole,
near the solar equator and west of the central meridian, is still
visible in the SOHO spacecraft EIT 195 imagery, although it seems
to have weakened a little. The resultant increase in solar wind
speed and variability can be seen at the STEREO-B spacecraft,
which is ahead of the Earth in terms of solar rotation effects.
Expected Vsw is ~500km/sec. The coronal hole high-speed solar-wind
stream (HSSWS) should be geoeffective today or tomorrow, 19-20th
March UT. The IMF Bz turned sharply southwards at the ACE spacecraft
at 09UT but returned northward by 11UT. The solar disc is presently
spotless but AR1013 was due to return on the 18th if it survived
rearside solar transit.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11112001
Darwin 2 11101002
Townsville 5 12212122
Learmonth 2 12012000
Camden 2 11012001
Canberra 1 11001000
Hobart 1 10012000
Casey(Ant) 6 23222110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 5 Quiet to unsettled
20 Mar 5 Unsettled
21 Mar 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic conditions early in the UT day as
the Vsw has still decreased and settled at slightly below quiescent
levels at ~320km/sec. The upcoming small coronal hole is near
the solar equator and west of the central meridian. The SOHO
EIT 195 imagery appears to show a slight weakening of the hole
since yesterday. The resultant increase in solar wind speed and
variability can be seen at the STEREO-B spacecraft, which is
ahead of the Earth in terms of solar wind rotation effects. Expected
Vsw is ~500km/sec. The coronal hole high-speed solar-wind stream
(HSSWS) should be geoeffective today or tomorrow, 19-20th March
UT. The effect should only be moderate with Quiet-Unsettled and
possibly sporadic Active geomagnetic conditions at mid-latitudes.
The IMF Bz turned sharply southwards at the ACE spacecraft at
09UT but returned northward by 11UT and geomagnetic effects appear
to be negligible outside the auroral zone.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Coronal hole high-speed solar-wind stream (HSSWS) should
be geoeffective today or tomorrow, 19-20th March UT. Expect mild
mid and high latitude disturbances and a possible small rise
in MUFs. Equatorial response will likely lag mid-latidues by
a about a day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar -4 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near or slightly below monthly predicted HF
frequencies early in the UT day. The effect of a small coronal hole should
commence late today, 19th March UT, or early tomorrow, with slightly
increased geomagnetic activity. See geomagnetic and solar sections.
This will likely raise ionisation and HF frequencies to near
monthly predicted levels for a day or two. Extensive spread F
and sporadic Es was observed, particularly at equatorial latitudes.
Darwin- pre-dawn Es and spread-F. Vanimo - pre-dawn spread-F.
Nuie - dusk and pre-dawn strong spread-F and daytime blanketing
Es. Cocos Is - dusk spread-F. Hobart - night spread-F and dusk
Es.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 28400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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