[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 2 10:23:07 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low and
is expected to remain that way for the next three days. The solar
wind speed dropped back below 400km/s and the IMF Bz component
was persistently northward for most of the day. A small equatorial
coronal hole is expected to move into geoeffective position 03
Mar raising solar wind speed and increasing IMF variability.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 12211011
Darwin 4 12211012
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 5 12212112
Camden 2 11211001
Canberra 2 12201001
Hobart 2 12201001
Casey(Ant) 7 2-331111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 4 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 3220 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 2 Quiet
03 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the UT
day. Expect mostly Quiet conditions today (02 Mar), Unsettled
conditions with isolated Active periods on day two (03 Mar) due
to onset of a coronal hole wind stream, and a return to mostly
Quiet conditions day 3 (04 Mar).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values
03 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values
04 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Aus/NZ region over
the last 24 hours. MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values
with the notable exception of the equatorial region which again
saw some large fluctuations in MUFs. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed (10 to 20%)
next three days due to continuing low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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