[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 09
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 23 09:55:24 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
New solar region 1023 was the source of minor A class activity.
Solar wind speed remained at nominal levels of ~280km/s at the
time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-2nT. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 12101001
Darwin 2 22100001
Townsville 5 12211212
Learmonth 2 12111000
Camden 0 11000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11101001
Casey(Ant) 3 12111110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2321 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 4 Quiet
24 Jun 4 Quiet
25 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
24 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
25 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
25 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed for Equatorial regions
over the entire UT day along with notable sporadic E. Northern
AUS regions experienced depressed MUFs during local day with
Southern AUS/NZ regions near monthly normal values. Disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions. Depressed conditions expected
for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions ranging from 10-20% for the
next 3 days, with mostly normal ionospheric support for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 32400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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