[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 21 09:26:19 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind ranged between
280 km/s and 350 km/s over the last 24 hours and is expected
to remain in this range for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 02210111
Darwin 3 12210111
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 4 12211111
Camden 3 02210111
Canberra 1 01200000
Hobart 3 02210111
Casey(Ant) 2 01210111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 2000 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 4 Quiet
22 Jun 4 Quiet
23 Jun 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressions to 30% expected in the equatorial and northern
Australian regions during local night. Enhancements to 30% expected
in the southern and antartic regions, particularly during local night.
Noted spread F in the mid latitudes, in particular Brisbane,
Townsville, Norfolk Is. and Cocos Is.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 34100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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