[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 11 09:43:32 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar wind speed (Vsw) at the ACE spacecraft increased
over the UT day from 320 to only a moderate 380 km/sec at 12UT
and has declined to 360km/sec. The STEREO-B spacecraft shows
Vsw less than at Earth (ACE spacecraft) so no enhanced Vsw is
expected in the next three days. However STEREO-B shows IMF
disturbances from 18UT which are likely a sector boundary which would interact
with Earth in 2-3 days time. IMF Bz was mostly mildly southward
(less than 5nT) from 04-14UT but geomagnetic merging does not
appear to have been strong. Active region AR1020 (24N) has moved
onto the western limb and remains a simple beta magnetic configuration
and unlikely to flare. X-ray activity at the GOES spacecraft
remains very low. Solar activity is expected to stay at very
low levels for at least the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12211001
Darwin 2 12200000
Townsville 5 12222112
Learmonth 3 22210000
Camden 1 11200000
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 3 11211111
Casey(Ant) 4 12221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 3 Quiet
12 Jun 3 Quiet
13 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at Quiet levels
today with only a slight Unsettled period early in the UT day
at equatorial latitudes. Quiet levels are expected for the next
two days with the possibility of some Unsettled periods on 13
June from the passage of a solar IMF sector boundary. See solar
section. IMF Bz was mostly mildly southward (less than 5nT) from
04-14UT but geomagnetic merging does not appear to have been
strong as polar latitudes remained geomagnetically quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 8 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
12 Jun 8 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
13 Jun 13 0 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF MUF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
to slightly enhanced across Aust/NZ region for the next three
days. Nighttime MUF enhancements are noted in particular, possibly
due to prevalance of night spread-F in near equatorial regions.
Possibility of increased MUF enhancements and a slightly disturbed
ionosphere around the 13th due to the passage of a solar IMF
sector boundary, which may enhance the geomagnetic field disturbance
to Unsettled and in turn enhance and disturb the ionosphere.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 14200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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