[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 8 09:44:07 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed between 320 and 360 km/s almost the
whole UT day today. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field stayed close to the normal value for most
parts of the day, showing fluctuations upto +/-5nT at times.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for
the next 3 days. Some strengthening in the solar wind stream
is possible on 10 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 11112111
Camden 2 01111111
Canberra 1 01000110
Hobart 3 10111211
Casey(Ant) 5 12221121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1210 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 4 Quiet
09 Jun 4 Quiet
10 Jun 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels today.
Similar level of activity is expected for the next three days
with some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 10 June
due to a recurrent pattern.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal to fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
today although sporadic E-layers and spread-F conditions were
also observed at times. HF conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal on most locations for the next three days with
some possibility of minor degradations on high latitudes on
10 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 6 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%.
09 Jun 6 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%.
10 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
most locations across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 43600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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