[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 6 09:28:11 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed gradually increased from 300 to 335 km/s
during the UT day today. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field stayed negative almost the whole day, sometimes
upto around -4 nT. Solar activity is expected to stay at very
low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 11222111
Darwin 4 11222111
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 5 11223111
Camden 2 01122100
Canberra 2 01122000
Hobart 5 10223111
Casey(Ant) 4 12212111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1321 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 4 Quiet
07 Jun 3 Quiet
08 Jun 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels today.
Activity level is expected to remain at quiet levels for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
today although sporadic E-layers and spread-F conditions were
also observed at times. HF conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal on most locations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 8 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%.
07 Jun 8 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%.
08 Jun 8 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
most locations across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 11000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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