[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jul             30 Jul             31 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. The solar wind speed has 
ranged between about 375 and 430 km/s. A small, equatorially 
positioned coronal hole has just passed central meridian. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12121101
      Darwin               2   12120001
      Townsville           7   23222212
      Learmonth            2   11120001
      Camden               2   11120001
      Canberra             1   01020001
      Hobart               2   11121100
      Casey(Ant)           5   22221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1110 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jul     5    Quiet 
30 Jul     5    Quiet 
31 Jul     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Jul     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      01 and 21-22 UT. No data for Vanimo.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      mostly between 01-06 and 09-13 UT. Night spread F
      observed at most stations.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
      observed at Canberra, Hobart and Sydney 12-20 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
30 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
31 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: Depressions and night spread F more likely at lower 
latitudes. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    66200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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