[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 22 09:36:52 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. The
anticipated effect of the coronal hole did not eventuate
as strongly as expected. Solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 340 km/s to 300 km/s during the UT day today (21 July).
The Bz component of IMF stayed mostly positive (upto around
+5nT) during the first half of the UT day and negative (mostly
around -4nT) in the second half. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days (22 to 24 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 22211111
Camden 2 11111100
Canberra 1 11101100
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 4 12211211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1112 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 4 Quiet
23 Jul 3 Quiet
24 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity did not rise to the anticipated
levels on 21 July as the previously anticipated effect of the
coronal hole did not eventuate as strongly as was expected.
Activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet levels for the
next 3 days (22 to 24 July).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic E-layer on low and some mid latitude
locations and spread F mainly on high latitudes were observed
today (21July). HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations from 22 to 24 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Aus/NZ regions from 22 to 24 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 38000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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