[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. Solar wind parameters have 
declined to nominal levels. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           5   22211112
      Learmonth            0   01010000
      Camden               0   11000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   11111000
      Casey(Ant)           1   11111000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul     3    Quiet 
20 Jul     5    Quiet 
21 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters have declined to nominal levels. 
Expect generally quiet conditions days one and two. A recurrent 
coronal hole wind stream is anticipated resulting in elevated 
geomagnetic activity on day three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jul    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Evening spread-F observed most stations. Weak ionosphere 
at times S Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect mostly normal conditions 
next two days. Possible disturbances in Antarctic region day 
three in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    29000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"