[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               68/2

COMMENT: Region 1024 (S25,W61) is showing no significant activity 
at this time. Change in area and spot number is hard to say due 
to proximity to the limb. The solar wind ranged from 300 to 380 
over the last 24 hours. The solar wind is expected to remain 
in this range for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11110122
      Darwin               4   11110222
      Townsville           6   22221222
      Learmonth            4   12110222
      Camden               2   11110111
      Canberra             1   01100111
      Hobart               4   11211121
      Casey(Ant)           5   22211122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1122 1221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul     5    Quiet 
11 Jul     4    Quiet 
12 Jul     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Jul    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul     6    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Jul     6    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jul     6    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Isolated cases of sporadic E noted noted through out 
the Australian region as well as Antarctica. Expect mostly normals 
values for MUFs over the next three days. IPSNET ionograms can 
be viewed at www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3 for more details of 
particular sites. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    23900 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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