[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 5 09:44:52 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low levels
today as well, although a newly formed region 1024 (S27E02)
produced a number of B-class flares, a B8.3 that peaked at
0437UT being the largest event for the day until the time of
this report (2330UT). Solar wind speed stayed between 320 and
360 km/s for most parts of the UT day today. The Bz component
gradually changed from -3nT to +3UT during the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next 3 days,
although a C-class flare is possible from region 1024 during
this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 3 11211101
Camden 1 01010111
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 2 10111111
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1101 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 3 Quiet
06 Jul 3 Quiet
07 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Similar conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic-E regions on low and mid latitudes
and spread-F conditions mainly on mid and high latitudes were
observed over the last 24 hours. Periods of minor to significant
degradations in HF conditions were also observed mainly on
high latitudes. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values
06 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values
07 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remained mostly close to the normal values for
low and mid latitude regions with strong sporadic E over the
last 24 hours. Some degradations in HF conditions observed on
high latitudes during this period. HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 47100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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